A warm dry winter?

Commuting, Day rides, Audax, Incidents, etc.
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GrumpyGit
Posts: 361
Joined: 31 Dec 2007, 10:31pm
Location: North London

Re: A warm dry winter?

Post by GrumpyGit »

Well, given that the only thing we can accurately predict about our wonderful British weather is that it will be unpredictable I'm happily ready for the worst it can throw at us.

I have read that the studs should be bedded in by riding a few miles on dry roads but elsewhere it has been suggested that the advice only applies to nice smooth German tarmac and that our rotten rough roads will do more damage than good.

I'll probably just go for manually pushing each stud down and only fit them to the bike when snow is definitely due.

The worst conditions I've previously encountered were on residential streets that don't get gritted where the snow has partially melted then re-frozen forming a thick sheet. Riding on normal tyres over that was definitely a sphincter puckering experience!
Derek - The enlightened petrolhead ;)
David_S
Posts: 43
Joined: 27 Jun 2014, 7:44pm

Re: A warm dry winter?

Post by David_S »

Not particularly dry this week!
Flinders
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Joined: 10 Mar 2009, 6:47pm

Re: A warm dry winter?

Post by Flinders »

Postboxer wrote:The BBC website doesn't even match the current weather. Took a risk of it staying dry versus the wet all day forecast and luckily it did. I should have however paid attention to the wind which was fairly strong and in my face for the first half, with some benefit on the second half though.


The BBC stopped updating their forecasts over the weekend some time ago. Unless they have started again, there's no point using it at weekends.

Been using the Met office for walking in Cumbria this week. Only trouble is, the mountain forecast is now updated at ridiculous hours in the morning- one was just after 1 pm. In changeable weather like at present, that makes it little more than a waste of time. It's ironic that the town forecasts are updated regularly and the mountain ones (designed for safety and including things like cloudbase and specific weather warnings for high ground) are hours out of date before most people would start walking- it isn't the Alps where people start before dawn.

I also note that often the forecast dated times are often up to an hour before the forecast has actually been posted.
mig
Posts: 2702
Joined: 19 Oct 2011, 9:39pm

Re: A warm dry winter?

Post by mig »

the bbc television forecast often has a rider saying "we're not sure so far ahead as 5 day's time" then the website tries to predict up to a month ahead etc. vague 'forecasts' i know but they've no idea!!
winter in britain - dry and cold if the position of the jetstream pulls in air from the east. wet and windy if the position pushes systems from across the atlantic over the top of us.
i've got my studded tyres ready-ish in the shed but they rarely see much serious action.
Penfolds11
Posts: 127
Joined: 9 Jan 2013, 12:08pm

Re: A warm dry winter?

Post by Penfolds11 »

Flinders wrote:
Postboxer wrote:The BBC website doesn't even match the current weather.

The BBC stopped updating their forecasts over the weekend some time ago. Unless they have started again, there's no point using it at weekends.

Been using the Met office for walking in Cumbria this week. .


To a certain extent the situation in this country for weather forecasting says a lot about internet usage. The BBC has used Met Office data, and Met Office trained staff to interpret that data, for decades. That the BBC and Met Office forecasts often disagree is, in my humble opinion, more to do with what service each wants to provide on their website than the accuracy of the data interpretation.

One well-known weather forecaster once told me that the Met Office success target was 40% accuracy. To be wrong 6 times out of 10 and get a pat on the back seems strange to me but I understand that is more to do with the difficulty of weather prediction, even with the latest computerised models, and is why its a forecast and not a guarantee.

My own personal feeling is that the BBC Weather bulletins on TV and radio are more accurate than their website. You'd expect them to be the same but I have had occasional experience that they are not. Whether (ho, ho) that is because the BBC wants to give its licence-fee payers the more accurate data, whether that's to do with the more experienced forecasters being on telly and radio or whether there's a completely unrelated cause I honestly don't know.

I've long given up relying on weather forecasts, you can screenshot a forecast today for Saturday and again every day of this week until Saturday and each day's forecast of Saturday's weather will be different. I regularly watch the current day's forecast of heavy rain move out on an hourly basis until the forecast for that day is effectively for a dry day wheres at the start of the day it had been for heavy rain most of the day.

You're better off studying cows: put your mac on when they all lie down...
MikeF
Posts: 4339
Joined: 11 Nov 2012, 9:24am
Location: On the borders of the four South East Counties

Re: A warm dry winter?

Post by MikeF »

GrumpyGit wrote:If I'm going to make it to Brighton next spring I shall have to keep riding through anything the winter can throw at us.

In preparation I've just bought a pair of studded tyres for my mountain bike as it is my "weapon of choice" for filthy conditions. My hybrid remains set up for relatively benign roads.

Working on the principle that it never rains when you're carrying an umbrella I'm expecting a very mild winter this year! :D
I predict there will be fewer hours of daylight, :lol: so you might need lights. :wink:
"It takes a genius to spot the obvious" - my old physics master.
I don't peddle bikes.
maxcherry
Posts: 664
Joined: 22 Mar 2011, 5:53pm

Re: A warm dry winter?

Post by maxcherry »

MikeF wrote:
GrumpyGit wrote:If I'm going to make it to Brighton next spring I shall have to keep riding through anything the winter can throw at us.

In preparation I've just bought a pair of studded tyres for my mountain bike as it is my "weapon of choice" for filthy conditions. My hybrid remains set up for relatively benign roads.

Working on the principle that it never rains when you're carrying an umbrella I'm expecting a very mild winter this year! :D
I predict there will be fewer hours of daylight, :lol: so you might need lights. :wink:



Did you scatter some chicken bones, or dangle some seaweed to see into the future :shock:
Honestly chaps, I'm a female!
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GrumpyGit
Posts: 361
Joined: 31 Dec 2007, 10:31pm
Location: North London

Re: A warm dry winter?

Post by GrumpyGit »

maxcherry wrote:
MikeF wrote:
GrumpyGit wrote:If I'm going to make it to Brighton next spring I shall have to keep riding through anything the winter can throw at us.

In preparation I've just bought a pair of studded tyres for my mountain bike as it is my "weapon of choice" for filthy conditions. My hybrid remains set up for relatively benign roads.

Working on the principle that it never rains when you're carrying an umbrella I'm expecting a very mild winter this year! :D
I predict there will be fewer hours of daylight, :lol: so you might need lights. :wink:



Did you scatter some chicken bones, or dangle some seaweed to see into the future :shock:


What a splendid idea, would cat entrails help too?? :lol:
Derek - The enlightened petrolhead ;)
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