31% increase in cycling Road casualties 2007 to 2014

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Tonyf33
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31% increase in cycling Road casualties 2007 to 2014

Post by Tonyf33 »

It would seem that the cycling in numbers mantra isn't working in the UK, 27% rise in the number of cycle traffic since 2007 (admittedly a low year for traffic/distances covered) yet a 31% rise in casualties in the same period.
I said it wasn't working a few years ago (cycling safety coming about through more numbers cycling) but most wouldn't have it. Now, where do we go from here, are CTC, British Cycling/ Sustrans et al failing in one of their primary functions?
http://road.cc/content/news/165375-seri ... r-distance
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... eport-2014
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tykeboy2003
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Re: 31% increase in cycling Road casualties 2007 to 2014

Post by tykeboy2003 »

We need a massive awareness campaign on the TV to get drivers to understand and allow for cyclists.

Last night I was out for a ride and after several close overtakes against oncoming traffic on a road where it's simply not wide enough, I started riding in primary when there was oncoming traffic resulting in abuse from several drivers.
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Si
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Re: 31% increase in cycling Road casualties 2007 to 2014

Post by Si »

I'm not saying that safety in numbers will work but to discount it on the basis of the last few years would be much too a simplistic option.

For instance, an increase in cycling does not necessarily mean that you have reached the required number for s-in-n. And likewise, if you do have an increase with lots of new, inexperienced cyclists on the road then you are sure to encounter a rise in incidents due to that inexperience.

I think that most bodies now agree that infrastructure (not just cyclepaths but other benefits for cyclists such as filtered permeability, etc) is the ideal, yet I also think that it is too early to write off s-in-n completely....it may well have a part to play in certain situations.

are CTC, British Cycling/ Sustrans et al failing in one of their primary functions?


Surely road safety is down to the government not two charities and a sports body?
Vorpal
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Re: 31% increase in cycling Road casualties 2007 to 2014

Post by Vorpal »

I think that people have put too much on SiN, and I don't think that SiN alone should be a campaign strategy, however, I also think that many other things have changed, that may have a bigger influence on road casualties.

-police traffic enforcement has been reduced
-numbers of speed cameras are down
-distracted driving is on the rise, as people increasingly use devices and phones whilst driving

Although Oxfordshire rather famously turned their speed cameras back on, some councils did not, and others are no longer paying maintenance contracts on speed cameras and thereby taking them off-line by stealth.

There may be other factors, as well, such the experience and knowledge of new cyclists, the state of maintenance on the roads, etd.

Looking only at the system holistically, IMO, it is a direct result of prioritising motor vehicle movements, while more and more people are going out on their bikes.
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pwa
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Re: 31% increase in cycling Road casualties 2007 to 2014

Post by pwa »

The increase in casualties is only slightly above the increase in cycling, which could even be seen as grounds for hope because the increase in cycling probably means lots of new, inexperienced cyclists out there. If everything else remained constant I would expect more novice cyclists to result in an increase in casualties per km. It is possible that experienced cyclists are having fewer accidents but new cyclists are more than compensating for this. Speculation, I know, but only to illustrate how crude statistics like this leave questions to be answered.
Psamathe
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Re: 31% increase in cycling Road casualties 2007 to 2014

Post by Psamathe »

Vorpal wrote:I think that people have put too much on SiN, and I don't think that SiN alone should be a campaign strategy, however, I also think that many other things have changed, that may have a bigger influence on road casualties.

-police traffic enforcement has been reduced
-numbers of speed cameras are down
-distracted driving is on the rise, as people increasingly use devices and phones whilst driving
...
Looking only at the system holistically, IMO, it is a direct result of prioritising motor vehicle movements, while more and more people are going out on their bikes.

Thought (not based on fact, just a supposition): in countries where Safety In Numbers has worked, might this be because as numbers increase so the "authorities" react and improve facilities, public awareness, etc. Whilst in the UK, increase numbers (of cyclists) seems to run at the same time as government trying to make life easier for motorists whilst ignoring the increasing numbers of cyclists.

Ian
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Si
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Re: 31% increase in cycling Road casualties 2007 to 2014

Post by Si »

Psamathe wrote:
Vorpal wrote:I think that people have put too much on SiN, and I don't think that SiN alone should be a campaign strategy, however, I also think that many other things have changed, that may have a bigger influence on road casualties.

-police traffic enforcement has been reduced
-numbers of speed cameras are down
-distracted driving is on the rise, as people increasingly use devices and phones whilst driving
...
Looking only at the system holistically, IMO, it is a direct result of prioritising motor vehicle movements, while more and more people are going out on their bikes.

Thought (not based on fact, just a supposition): in countries where Safety In Numbers has worked, might this be because as numbers increase so the "authorities" react and improve facilities, public awareness, etc. Whilst in the UK, increase numbers (of cyclists) seems to run at the same time as government trying to make life easier for motorists whilst ignoring the increasing numbers of cyclists.

Ian


T'is a good point.....although in the Netherlands I believe that the cycle facilities were as much on the back of a safe streets / play streets type campaign rather than a stand alone thing. But there must be, one assumes, a critical point where cyclist numbers impact on voting trends at which point the authorities will have no choice. It's just a question of it this number can be reached without the infrastructure being put in first - chickens and eggs.
iviehoff
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Re: 31% increase in cycling Road casualties 2007 to 2014

Post by iviehoff »

Since the number of fatalities in a year for cyclists is only 113, purely random effects can be much larger than the 4% rate increase mentioned.

The report observes a very substantial increase of 12% in pedestrian casualty rates, but even this isn't statistically significant. You do have to look at these things over longer periods. It turns out a lot of the difference is in casualty rates for old pedestrians, and this is significant. There's more old people walking around, which is a good thing, but they are at higher risk of accidents.

One of the curious things about cycling is that the fatality:injury rate is much higher for cyclists than either pedestrians or motorcyclists, which have similar ratios, the discrepancy is a factor of about 4. It does seem that if you are a cyclist who is in an accident, it is much more likely to be fatal than these other vulnerable road users. I suspect that this is because cyclists specifically suffer from the left hook problem, which is much less of an issue for the other types.

One thing that is noticeable in all the data is a sharp reduction in casualty rates during the recession, and then flat lining after the worst of the recession.
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horizon
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Re: 31% increase in cycling Road casualties 2007 to 2014

Post by horizon »

I couldn't work out from the road.cc whether the number was from collisions with vehicles or bike-alone accidents. I would love to know the circumstances of these accidents: main roads, London streets, lorries, night-time etc. Even a building boom in London could affect the figures. I could also add that a big increase in fast road riding may have had an effect. How do we address the problem if we don't know the cause and what will be the point if the obvious causes (e.g. tipper lorries) are not going to be addressed anyway. At the moment we're just blind and then stupid.
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Tonyf33
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Re: 31% increase in cycling Road casualties 2007 to 2014

Post by Tonyf33 »

It's gone up by 4% more but the differential is actually 15% and when taking into acount the supposed safety in numbers factor of which the CTC and others push as being a major factor in its effect then that figure should be looked at with the stark reality of what means.
The roads are less safe now than they've been for yers and that's with the supposed 'safety' features and infra put in place.
When you take into account the actual drop in motorvehicle miles since 2007 to 2014 (314.1 billion to 311 billion https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/s ... s-2014.pdf ) the picture is even more revealing.

As for the organisations I mentioned, they are all involved in one way or another in shapng our roads and how safe they are, they all have some say on certain projects, as per last year when CTC and the others caved in and backed poor infra it IS they that are failing us, they fail to impress exactly what is needed but instead doff the cap and tug the forlock to rubbish such as the Bedford turbo roundabout and many other pointless 'road safety' projects!

A basic spreadsheet of some of the data sets https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j ... 4E58mR9fUA
pwa
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Re: 31% increase in cycling Road casualties 2007 to 2014

Post by pwa »

Cycling conditions are not worsening everywhere. Here in South Wales, at least in the areas I know best, things have got better. Close passing aggressive drivers are rarer, respectful drivers are more common, and I hardly ever have a car horn aimed at me.
Pete Owens
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Re: 31% increase in cycling Road casualties 2007 to 2014

Post by Pete Owens »

Tonyf33 wrote:The roads are less safe now than they've been for yers and that's with the supposed 'safety' features and infra put in place.

It is likely that the supposed safety features (aka cycle paths) that have been appearing all over the place in the last few years have directly increased the crash statistics. These are known to vastly increase the collision risk at junctions yet the enthusiasm to build more and more of them seems undiminished.

It is not surprising that a junction on one of Gilligan's new cycle-super-highways topped the list of cycle crash locations recently published in the Times.
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Neilo
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Re: 31% increase in cycling Road casualties 2007 to 2014

Post by Neilo »

pwa wrote:Cycling conditions are not worsening everywhere. Here in South Wales, at least in the areas I know best, things have got better. Close passing aggressive drivers are rarer, respectful drivers are more common, and I hardly ever have a car horn aimed at me.


Not in the part of South Wales where I ride. Close passing aggressive drivers are pretty common, Horn use, not so common.

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beardy
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Re: 31% increase in cycling Road casualties 2007 to 2014

Post by beardy »

It would seem that the cycling in numbers mantra isn't working in the UK,


I dont think that we are any where near populous enough to have reached the safety in numbers effect.

It may be the case that London has reached such a point but unless their statistics can be considered separately from the rest of the UK it will not show.
brooksby
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Re: 31% increase in cycling Road casualties 2007 to 2014

Post by brooksby »

Si wrote:Surely road safety is down to the government not two charities and a sports body?


But that's the nanny state, isn't it? We don't want some awful quasi communist nanny state, we want a free market country where the state interferes as little as possible and we are left to our own devices, with "social" stuff taken over by the private sector. At least, that was my presumption after the last election... :roll:
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